“Usually when things has gone this far, People tend to disappear, No one will surprise me unless you do. I can tell there’s something goin’ on, Hours seems to disappear. Everyone is leaving I’m still with you… And we don’t care about the young folks…” Peter Bjorn and John – Young Folks

There have been countless arguments as to the validity of the Rajar Diary system. We all know how brilliant it is when the figures rise and yet when they fall, the usual barriers go up and we rally together firstly to address the way listening is measured and then to discuss alternative methods of assessing our audience numbers. However one thing is always accepted. Whether right or wrong, these quarterly results set the precedent for the next three months and determine how we work and who we target. And every so often, we discover some astonishing facts, a clue or insight if you will, to the trends and patterns of the great British public.

For the past three years, Virgin Radio Xtreme has strived to serve a niche and congested corner of the 16-24 year old market. Time and time again, the station has flirted with figures that have encroached on the 100 thousand mark in reach, and here in programming and marketing, we have tried several different ideas to achieve that goal and build awareness of this growing radio station. In this quarter, having reached that initial target, we have noticed something alarming. A statistic has emerged that could well develop into a trend. The average age of the listener to Xtreme is now 33 years old.

During Clive’s analysis for the programming team last week, we saw how Radio 1’s figures had dropped. More importantly, we heard how the average age of the listener to Radio 1 is, yep, 33 years old. Why do two stations aimed at 16-24 year olds end up with an audience that is nearly twice as old as their target? On closer analysis we notice that Kiss 100 has slipped as well. Year on year figures show that Xfm is still down, in spite of a good recovery from a disastrous period. Yet Magic displays astonishing figures, breaking the 2 million mark in reach, a record in the modern, ultra competitive market.

Have 16-24 year olds simply vanished from the Rajar radar? Are they not filling the diary in properly? Imagine that the typical 16 year old wakes up in the morning with an alarm clock that is no longer a radio but a mobile phone beep. He or she then gets up, has a shower, changes and after a quick breakfast, picks up the ipod and goes to school or college. The commute home with friends involves mucking about at the back of a bus, having an argument about a song they’ve shared on an mp3 player,  a bit of homework, dinner and then if we are lucky, a moment tuning in to the radio. More likely it will be a run on the Xbox, Playstation or Wii. What are the chances of squeezing in time to fill in the diary amongst all this? Minimal I’d say.

With the advent of Facebook and other social networking sites, file sharing and Last FM, it only takes one person to mention a song to a friend, and it’s downloaded within minutes. Perhaps this age bracket sees radio as an antiquated, un-cool device that their parents enjoy. And at 16 years old, who wants to be involved in something that their parents love? One could even take this argument further and say that the 45 plus generation grew up without the numerous music outlets that exist today, listening to average quality analogue signals. They will be more likely to embrace Digital Radio than a 16 year old who has never understood how granddad and his mates huddled round the wireless during the war… For granddad therefore, DAB is an extraordinary feat of technology. For our 16 year old, that feat is matched when playing Halo online, in his living room, with gamers in Japan. Older people are tuning in more often than the younger generations because radio is the most familiar means of communication to them.

Can anything be done to stem the flow and encourage the “young folks” to return to radio? To say they have disappeared completely would be wrong. But with so many alternative outlets to absorb music (Guitar Hero, itunes, word of mouth and endless resources online) it is hardly surprising that the oldest medium of them all, radio, can sometimes suffer. Where Radio 1 had its reshuffle in the early 90’s to appeal to the 16-24 year olds, so may it be time for another radical industry overhaul in terms of image and durability. If we place the emphasis on evolving Digital Radio into a hip and cool “must have” item, like an Xbox or an ipod, then we are already half way there in welcoming that crucial target audience back into the fold.

As a footnote, I bought my first mp3 player in 2002. Six years and four ipods later, I’m still on my first digital radio which I bought at the same time…

David